So, eleven weeks into the fantasy football season and you are in the playoff hunt. Congratulations! You have managed your team well thru some horrible first round picks and some excellent late round steals. Now you enter the stretch run and wonder who you should be starting now that some of your studs are back healthy and you have no more bye weeks to simplify your decisions for you. Well, that is where I come in. Read on for the Guru's thoughts on how to traverse these challenging times.
Rule #1 for fantasy football playoff contenders - NEVER sit your studs. Period. Well, unless they are ruled "out" or "doubtful." Questionable is a tricky one, see Clinton Portis in week 11. The point is you shouldn't get to cute with your thinking and matchup analysis. True Anquan Boldin has a tough matchup with weekend with the Giants, but the man is a beast. I have actually had a fellow league mate ask if he should sit Boldin in favor of Lance Moore. And while Lance Moore is clearly the go to guy in New Orleans, he is no Boldin. And even though Moore has a more favorable matchup than Boldin, he is less likely to produce the way Boldin has in his 8 games. The real question should be, who are your other WRs and what do your RBs look like. Is Moore your #3 WR in a league that starts 2-3 receivers? If so, trade him for a good #2 RB if you are in need. These last few weeks are the time you should be shedding bench production to get starters who will carry you to a championship!
Rule #2 - Always, and I repeat ALWAYS do your homework. Don't be the guy that says "hey, I am already in the playoffs, so I will start my lineup and not worry about the waiver wire." The waiver wire is a playoff contenders best friend because chances are, those who have been eliminated from the post season will stop doing drop/adds to save the transaction fees. This could be a great way to improve your team when you have injuries to your starters. Excellent example is this weekend with Cadillac Williams. He has been cleared to play and removed from the PUP list. And with Graham going down for possibly the rest of the season, you Graham owners should be all over this man. Dunn is the presumptive starter with Graham done, but he has a history of injury as well and he is getting old. The "Caddy" has fresh tires and could be a great addition these last three weeks.
Rule #3 - If you have "dead weight" in the form of additional TEs, Defenses, 3rd QBs or Kickers, it is past time to shed them. I have one league I am in that I know I will be dropping Chicago's D and Owen Daniels. Why would I drop a #4 Defense and #5 TE? I also have Tampa's D and Tony Gonzalez. Am I going to start Chicago or OD over the Bucs and Gonzo? No way. So, why keep them on my bench. I will be picking up additional bench RBs and WRs to carry into the playoffs. ONE WORD OF CAUTION - Keep in mind your leagues tie breaker rules. If your league's first tie breaker is bench points, which most are, you may want to make sure you don't drop a player who puts up 10pts a game for someone who gets an average of 3 or 4. That could hurt you in the rare event of a tie on your starters. It happens, but not often. I have seen only two games this season that went to the bench tie breaker. Also, know your opponents needs. Don't drop a TE that is a productive backup if your opponent is holding a TE that can't catch a cold. Chances are you'll face that team in the playoffs and having an ex-player kill you is a terrible fate!
Finally, I say that experience is a key factor in playoff success. If you are a fantasy virgin, talk to someone you trust about lineup decisions. Often times, rookies play only the matchups or make their decisions on the "experts" rankings on ESPN or CNNSI. You have to know trends, historical performances and the teams that "sit" their studs close to fantasy playoff times. If you have never been this far in the season with a chance to get into the post season, the best friend you have is a fantasy veteran who has made the mistakes you may make...like sitting LT in favor of Antonio Pittman because LT has a TOUGH matchup and SJax is out for Week 12. We all know LT hasn't been himself this year, but you never sit a healthy stud. Again, don't get cute with your lineups. If you have doubt, consult that dude who brought 4 books with him to the draft that you made fun of!!
Good luck in your quest for the elusive championships!! And by the way, I am in two 12 team money leagues. I am 10-1 in one and 9-2 in the other. Best records for both leagues and current frontrunner for #1 seeds. But I spend WAAAAY too much time studying this stuff, so you can call me the Fantasy Nerd vs. Guru if you like!
Keywords: FANTASY FOOTBALL INSIGHT
